AFL + NRL · Every game, every roundRound 20 · Live

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The model's read.

Win probability, predicted score and player projections for every AFL and NRL game. The model runs the numbers and shows its work.

The free tier reads every stat — AFL back to 2000, NRL to 2014. No card, no account.

Match-level prediction
prM PredictionprM is our match-level prediction metric: the model's win probability, margin and totals read for this game.
WAR
Warriors
SGI
Dragons
Win probability
86%
Predicted winner
14%
The model's match read
WARWAR39prScore7SGISGI

H2H · Last 10

Head-to-head record pending.

Margin

WAR +32.0

Total points

46.0

Total tries

8.0

WAR 7.0 · SGI 1.0

Over 7.5 tries

62%

NOT AN EDGE

WAR favoured
The Wire
The roundWhat Pro sees

Every game ranked, every edge named.

AFL on the left, NRL on the right, one membership across both. Every number is model output, straight from the app.

AFLEdges · projections · ladders
Ranked edges. Every matchup advantage in the round, found and signed.
pr projections. prD disposals, prG goals, prF fantasy, every named player.
Probability ladders. 20+, 25+, 30+, priced off the projection.
Key outs and ins. Impact read the moment teams drop.
NRLTries · order · points
Try scorer order. First, second, third and last, for every game.
Duels and combos. Any two players, who scores first.
Points ladders. Priced from 2+ all the way up.
Team news. Ins, outs and impact, live.
Both codes, one membershipAFL edges and NRL boards live in the same round view. No add-ons, no per-code pricing. Cricket joins for summer.
The weekHow a round works

Teams drop. The board reruns.

The teams drop.

The fixture is known all season. The lineups are the news: NRL Tuesday, AFL Thursday.

Every matchup reruns.

Win chance, predicted score and the full ladders. Venue, opponent, form and role, read for the players actually named.

You get the read.

A probability, not a hunch. When it's a coin flip it says so, and thin samples get flagged.

The model retrains.

The model trains itself on the weekend's data, so next round's read starts sharper.

0%In range · 2023 to 2025
How the numbers are built →
AFLEdges · projections · ladders

The round's edges, found and named.

Goals, disposals, positions. The model ranks every matchup advantage in the round, then expands it to the players behind it.

Goals edge · tap to expand
Closed shows the team edge. Expanded names the players behind it — predicted goals, 1+ and 2+. The same tap as the app.
DisadvantageAdvantage
DEF-GEN
+3.4%
MID-TAG
+3.2%
FWD-KEY
-2.1%
FWD-SML
+2.1%
FWD-GEN
+1.9%
MID-OUT
+1.8%
WING
+1.2%
MID-INC
+0.6%
MID-INU
+0.5%
Positional advantage · Collingwood, disposals
Position by position against Carlton, def-gen +3.4 down to key forward −2.1. The negatives stay on the page.
prG & prF. Goals and fantasy projected beside disposals — every named player carries all three.
Tag Watch. The Tags tab calls the likely run-with jobs, game by game.
WING

Probability Ladder30+ · 58% means the model estimates a 58% chance of 30 or more disposals.

15+100%
20+98%
25+88%
30+58%
35+22%

Disposals by Split · Last 5

Last 5 GamesAll venues
vs CARHead-to-head
at M.C.G.This venue
Predicted disposals (prD)
Daicos at 31.06, with the 30+ line at 58% behind it, over the last five, the head-to-head and the venue split.
NRLTries · order · points

Try scorers. In order.

Anytime is the easy bit. StatRead ranks first, second, third and last try scorer for every game, and shows the splits behind every number.

The order1st, 2nd, 3rd, last. Nobody else does this.
DuelAny two players, who scores first.
ComboPick two or three, the chance at least one scores.
Biggest try threat · Round 20
5
Brian To'o
Penrith Panthers · Wing
Try scorer order
1st9.6%
2nd9.6%
3rd9.5%
Last9.6%
Anytime & multi
Anytime57.1%
2+20.8%
3+5.4%
The deep dive · full ladder and splits
Assumes independenceDuel compares two players' try scoring chances head to head: who scores first between them, both scoring, or either scoring. Combo reads two or three players' combined chances: all of them scoring, or at least one.

Pick two different players to compare their try scoring chances head to head.

Duel & combo · build your own read
The archiveThe free tier

Read the form. All of it. Free.

Full history for every player and team, fully searchable — AFL back to 2000, NRL to 2014. No card, no account, no meter.

0
AFL seasons
0
NRL seasons
0
Codes
COL
Nick Daicos
Collingwood · 2026 averages

2026 Season Averages

Disposals34.6
Marks4.0
Tackles2.5
Clearances5.7
Goals1.1
Inside 50s6.6
Fantasy116.6
Kicks18.8
Handballs15.9
Contested10.8
Goal assists0.9
Time on ground86%

Last 5 games

vs WBDM.C.G.L30DISP2GOALS
R25vs BRIM.C.G.L26DISP1GOALS
R24vs HAWM.C.G.D36DISP1GOALS
R23vs WCEPerth StadiumW39DISP1GOALS
R22vs GEEM.C.G.L35DISP0GOALS

Situational splits

Average disposals and goals grouped by opponent and venue, from this player’s actual games on record. Descriptive only — not a prediction. Splits need at least 3 meetings to show, and are flagged “small sample” under 6.
By opponent

No opponent yet with 3+ games on record.

By venue
  • M.C.G.35.2 disp · 1.1 goals (15)
  • Docklandssmall sample33.7 disp · 1.3 goals (3)
DOL
Jamayne Isaako
Dolphins · 2026 averages

2026 Season Averages · 24 Games

Tries0.9
Try assists0.1
Line breaks1.0
Tackle breaks2.7
Runs16.5
Run metres151
Tackles4.8
Goals4.3
Points12.0
Recent games
RndOppTryLBRMTklPtsRes
27GLD0013348W
26SYD009756W
25PAR22128418W
24MAN12243610W
23BRB1187016W
22SGI0015838W
Browse historical stats, free
Shown workTested on real seasons

When it's a coin flip, we say so.

Every probability is calibration-gated. If the model can't stand behind a number, the number doesn't ship.

Thin samples get flagged, not hidden. One head-to-head meeting reads a low sample, and you decide what that's worth.

And disadvantages get called as loudly as advantages. When a matchup runs against a team, that red row stays on the page.

Straight from the goals board. The red rows ship too.
01
The edge

The matchup, not just the player. For every game the model shows which position groups have troubled this exact opponent, and by how much, against what they concede to the rest of the competition. It's drawn from years of head-to-head history, weighted toward recent form, and thin samples get pulled toward neutral rather than shouted. An edge is a lean, not a lock, and it always ships with its sample size.

02
The pr projection

For every named player the model projects disposals, goals and fantasy for the game ahead, as a range rather than a single number pretending to be exact. It blends recent form with how the opponent has been travelling, corrected against decades of real results, and finished with an honest spread. That's the pr on every board, and the same discipline prices every NRL try.

03
The probability ladder

A projection is one number. The ladder prices the spread around it: 20+, 25+, 30+ disposals, 1+ and 2+ goals, each read off a curve shaped to how that stat actually behaves, then checked against history. The ladder and the projection can never disagree, because they come from the same read. When the board says 70, history says close to seven in ten.

04
What accuracy means

Tested, not claimed. Accuracy is measured by replaying full past seasons game by game, the model knowing only what it could have known on the day, and those seasons are never used to tune it. Across the 2023 to 2025 seasons about 92% of disposal projections landed inside their shown range, and when the board says 58%, history says close to 58 in 100. A retrained model that can't match its past accuracy never goes live; the last trusted version stays up.

CricketComing for summer

The read is coming to cricket.

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Free reads the past. Pro reads the future.

Every game, priced.

Win probability and a predicted score for every AFL and NRL match.

Player projections.

prD disposals, prG goals and prF fantasy for every named player, each with its full probability ladder.

Ranked edges.

Every positional advantage in the round, found, signed and sized.

NRL try scorers.

First, second, third and last in order, plus duels, combos and points ladders.

Team news, read.

Key outs and ins the moment sides drop.

The long game.

Futures ladders plus the Brownlow and Dally M boards, live all season.

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